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Politics
What they said, what happened — the standing ledger of promises by sitting politicians, checked on the record. Said vs did, side by side.
Said: City budgets 2024–2026 (per Ep research file 2026-10-12); cross-checked 2026-10-27 against Fox Marin's Toronto election analysis (Sept 2026 data): "Toronto property taxes rose 9.5% in 2024, 6.9% in 2025, and 2.2% in 2026, about 20% total"
The test: Each future budget's residential increase vs her affordability framing
Check: Every budget day
VERIFIED 2026-10-27 — published in The Record, Oct 27 edition
Said: 2026 campaign
The test: Starts/completions counted against 10,000 by end of term
Check: Quarterly
OPEN — term clock starts Nov 2026
Said: Council 2023.EX7.2 (voted Yes; adopted 23-1)
The test: City progress reports vs target trajectory
Check: On each city housing report
OPEN
Said: Council 2024.PH16.4 (adopted 25-1)
The test: Licences issued, enforcement actions, renoviction volumes
Check: Semi-annual
OPEN
Said: Council 2026.EX30.11 (adopted 25-0, Apr 22 2026)
The test: Funding, milestones, construction start vs promises
Check: On each transit milestone
OPEN — Scarborough watch item
Said: Mayoral Decision 4-2026
The test: Any budget veto use during the term
Check: Continuous
OPEN
Said: Council 2026.EX33.33 (adopted 26-0)
The test: Report delivered Q1 2027? Findings? Action?
Check: Q1 2027
OPEN — dated deliverable
Said: 2026 campaign, reported by The Canadian Press / CTV (Oct 2026)
The test: Residential increase in Budget 2027 (and each budget of the term) vs the inflation rate
Check: Budget 2027, then every budget day
OPEN — new-term pledge, added 2026-10-27
Said: 2026 campaign, reported by The Canadian Press (Oct 26, 2026)
The test: Fare-cap policy live on the TTC; terms as promised
Check: On implementation / first term budget
OPEN — added 2026-10-27
Said: 2026 campaign, reported by The Canadian Press and The Local (Oct 2026)
The test: Program reach vs campaign commitment
Check: On each program announcement
OPEN — added 2026-10-27
Said: 2026 campaign, reported by Capital Current (Oct 2026); also cited $252 million in savings found in the first term
The test: Residential increase in Ottawa Budgets 2027 and 2028 vs the 2.5% cap
Check: Each Ottawa budget day
OPEN — added 2026-10-27
Said: 2026 campaign, reported by Capital Current (Oct 2026)
The test: City-reported savings vs $250 million
Check: On each city financial report
OPEN — added 2026-10-27
Said: 2026 campaign, reported by Capital Current (election-night report, Oct 2026)
The test: Pass priced at $95/month live on OC Transpo fares
Check: On fare announcement / first term budget
OPEN — added 2026-10-30
Said: CBC interview, Oct 9, 2026, as carried in Chronicle coverage
The test: Any second separation referendum called, or legislation introduced toward one, during her premiership
Check: Continuous; term watch
OPEN — added 2026-10-29. Official Q10 result (Elections Alberta, released Oct 29, 2026): Remain 1,556,316 votes (74.95 per cent), Proceed 520,233 (25.05 per cent), turnout 70.4 per cent — the pledge's condition is met; the entry stays open on continuous watch. Updated Friday, October 30, 2026
Said: Joint Statement, 21st Canada-EU Summit, Montreal, October 30, 2026: the leaders will "work to define by the 2027 EU-Canada Summit the concept of an ever-closer association of Canada to the EU," short of full membership
The test: A defined association concept agreed by the 2027 summit
Check: At the 2027 EU-Canada Summit
OPEN — added 2026-10-31
Said: Closing news conference, Montreal, October 30, 2026: "we are working towards the deepest possible partnership, short of accession — with Canada becoming the European Union’s first associate member"; he expects to attend a June meeting of European leaders to conclude negotiations. The term "associate member" does not appear in the signed joint statement.
The test: Negotiations concluded in June, on terms Parliament can examine
Check: June 2027
OPEN — added 2026-10-31
Said: Carney's fiscal promise, restated by Opposition Leader Pierre Poilievre in his pre-budget letter, reported by The Canadian Press, November 1, 2026
The test: Budget 2026 fiscal tables vs the promise; the PBO projected the deficit at $63.3 billion in 2026-27 and the debt-to-GDP ratio rising from 41.1 per cent in 2025 to 42.6 per cent by the end of the decade
Check: Budget day, November 5, 2026, then each PBO outlook
CHECKED November 6, 2026 — on the budget's own tables the deficit-to-GDP ratio falls from 1.8 per cent in 2026-27 to 1.3 per cent in 2030-31; the tabled deficit is $62.3 billion in 2026-27 and $62.5 billion in 2027-28, with no balanced year. The PBO's rising debt-to-GDP projection is unanswered by the budget's track; the entry stays OPEN to the PBO's next outlook.
Said: Canadian Club Toronto, November 2, 2026, reported by The Canadian Press: "you will see in this budget a journey to fixing a number of things, to make things more simple"
The test: The tabled budget either contains SME tax-simplification changes usable without a tax adviser, or it does not; CFIB's asks (a small business rate cut from 9 per cent to 6 per cent, a deduction threshold of $700,000) as the secondary test
Check: Budget day, November 5, 2026
CHECKED November 6, 2026 — the budget carries the promised simplification journey: a single May 15 filing and payment deadline, the instalment threshold raised from $3,000 to $7,500, flat-amount options for several deductions and credits, and a $15 million Canada Growth Incentive. No tax rates changed; CFIB's rate and threshold asks were not delivered and were not part of the promise. The entry stays OPEN on implementation.
Said: Budget 2026 fiscal framework, tabled November 5, 2026: day-to-day operating spending, counted separately from capital investment, balanced against revenues beginning in 2027-28 — one year earlier than previously forecast. The PBO projected in October that the operating balance might not arrive until 2029-30
The test: The Public Accounts for 2027-28 show an operating balance on the government's own framework
Check: Public Accounts 2027-28; interim check at each PBO outlook
OPEN — added 2026-11-06
Said: Budget 2026, tabled November 5, 2026: a stated goal of ending homelessness within 10 years, with $11.2 billion over four years from 2027-28 and $17.8 billion in future years
The test: Federal homelessness counts and the Reaching Home programme's reported outcomes against a declining path to zero by 2036
Check: Each federal homelessness report
OPEN — added 2026-11-06
Said: Budget 2026, tabled November 5, 2026: an additional $13 billion over 10 years for Build Canada Homes, putting the agency on a path to deliver 200,000 homes over the next decade, at a total capitalisation of $45 billion
The test: Homes started and completed under Build Canada Homes against the 200,000 path
Check: Each Build Canada Homes report
OPEN — added 2026-11-06